Shortly after the original TikTok ban deadline hit on January 19, President Trump declared an executive order that delayed enforcement of the ban by 75 days. The app went dark for a few hours but then came back online and is currently available in app stores for download. That extension expires in just a few days (on April 5), but it is highly unlikely that TikTok will go dark again. All signs point to a deal or another extension.

TikTok Sans Its Algorithm Is A Downgrade

If TikTok divests in the US, the real question is whether its algorithm comes with the sale. TikTok without its algorithm is like Harry Potter without his wand: simply not as powerful. TikTok operates on a content graph, not a social graph, which means it analyzes thousands of user signals to determine what content and creators the user will want to watch, making it hyper relevant and highly addictive. In fact, our data shows that 31% of US online adults consider TikTok to be addictive, more than any other social media platform.

Last April, we asked TikTok users about a TikTok sale, and 54% said they would be concerned that, if TikTok was sold and run by a different company, it wouldn’t be as good of an experience as it is now. If the TikTok experience degrades, users, creators, and advertisers will spend more time and money on other media channels.

TikTok’s “Replacement” Is Entertainment, Not Social Media

Forrester ran a pulse check using its ConsumerVoices Market Research Online Community to ask 204 adult TikTok users about where they’d spend time if TikTok shut down. Most respondents said there is no good replacement social media app for TikTok. They said they would spend more time on the following channels if TikTok shuts down again:

  • 51% on YouTube
  • 41% on TV
  • 33% on Instagram
Note: This poll was administered to a random sample of online consumers in the US, the UK, and Canada in Forrester’s qualitative ConsumerVoices online community. This data is not weighted to be representative of total country populations.

Instagram Reels arguably has the most comparable experience to TikTok, so it’s telling that television and YouTube are ranked higher. It means that the swap for TikTok is about finding the next best place for entertainment, not social networking. This consumer perspective matches what we’re hearing from advertisers. Digital video (including YouTube), not social media channels, is the top media channel that B2C marketing executives will shift marketing dollars to if TikTok shuts down again.

Advertisers Aren’t Running Away Just Yet

In our Q1 2025 CMO Pulse Survey, we asked B2C marketing executives about their TikTok investment, and nearly half said they invested media and/or influencer marketing dollars on TikTok in 2024. Ninety-four percent of those marketers say they still plan on investing in 2025 if it continues to operate in the US. In fact, major media spenders such as Amazon, Walmart, and Coca-Cola reportedly increased their US spend on TikTok despite the uncertainty. Marketers: You should still get ready to shift investments into other entertainment platforms if the TikTok experience degrades under new ownership.

Forrester clients: Schedule a Forrester guidance session to talk about your TikTok and creator strategy.